Nearly 451,000 additional deaths, including 15,800 (± 1,600) more heat-related fatalities in India, are projected globally in the next six months due to the prevailing “Super El Niño,” compared to a normal year, according to a University of Chicago study released on Wednesday.
“For India, nearly half of those deaths fall in just three months – December to February. The toll is not expected to stop there, with these deaths projected to keep rising into India’s summer,” said the study, which seeks to allow decision-makers to take emergency actions to save lives.
Weakening trade winds cause El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific every two to seven years. It can last up to 12 months and affect rainfall and temperature patterns. The World Meteorological Organisation has warned this year’s El Niño may be stronger than anything since monitoring began and literally off the charts.
Emergency response needed
University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab study said directing emergency response and resilience efforts to high-priority regions could potentially avoid tens of thousands of deaths. It suggested efforts like heat warnings, health outreach to vulnerable populations, cooling centers and hydration stations, worker protection, and expanded health system capacity.
It said anomalously warm conditions should resemble the high temperatures climate change is projected to deliver 20 years in the future and should lead to 44% more extremely hot days than one would expect in a normal year.
The assessment cited data and projected 451,000 additional deaths that would particularly impact the Global South, highlighting the need for climate mitigation, from September 2026 to February 2027.
“The 451,000 deaths projected to occur during the first half of El Niño alone are about 65 times larger than the 6,800 people believed to be dead or missing from the recent Nepal flash flood,” the study said.