India’s growth and prosperity can bode well for the world, American economist Michael Greenstone said, in a sharp contrast to the view that a stronger Brics grouping would be a threat to the US.
In response to a question on how he perceives the rise of the Brics grouping, Greenstone, former chief economist in the Obama administration, said: “I don’t have the view that the world is zero sum. I think a strong and prosperous India can be very good for the world and the same with the other members of the Brics countries.”Greenstone spoke in an interview with Mint on the sidelines of the Kautilya Economic Conclave in New Delhi. Brics, initially comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, expanded in 2024 to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, with Indonesia joining in 2025. India last month hosted the Brics leaders’ summit.
The 11-member group accounts for a half of the world’s population, about 40% of its gross domestic product and almost a quarter of its exports.
Asked about the current state of India-US relations, Greenstone said, “The US is not sending very clear and consistent messages with its trade policy towards India. And the unpredictability is complicated.” Any US expectation should be conveyed very clearly, he said, conceding that the Trump administration’s “goalposts have been shifting.”
“I like buying cheap products, and raising the price for consumers in the United States of products makes me poorer. You could imagine a strategic trade policy where you were trying to protect a particular industry to help it grow, but this feels very unstructured,” he said.
The US last month brought in a law that authorizes President Trump to impose up to 100% tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, including India and China.
Global crude oil prices are unlikely to ease from $100 per barrel in the short term, but fresh supply, greater adoption of electric vehicles and any correction in the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom could pull them down over time, Greenstone said.
Oil prices shot past the crucial $100 per barrel mark last month after a fresh escalation in the West Asia war, and have held above that level. This has stoked inflation concerns in net energy importers, including India, and put pressure on their current account. On Friday, Brent crude oil prices settled at $102.25 per barrel.
On the potential increase in oil supplies over a longer term, Greenstone said US oil production has risen, while Venezuela is fixing its oil infrastructure and Argentina is raising its output, too.
If this persists, along with a normalisation of Gulf supplies, the global oil market could face a glut again.
