Climate change is making weather more variable, with rainfall patterns becoming less predictable and extreme temperatures occurring more frequently. Agriculture is particularly sensitive to these changing conditions, jeopardizing the livelihoods of the 67 percent of the world’s poor who depend on agriculture for survival. Effectively coping with this variability will be essential as the world continues to warm: Highly variable weather makes it challenging for farmers to tailor their planting decisions to the coming season, leading them to underinvest in things that could increase their profits like high-yielding crops, fertilizer, labor, and more. By giving farmers a preview of the conditions of the coming growing season, accurate long-range forecasts have the potential to help farmers make the best possible investments. This study presents the first experimental evidence on the impact of such an accurate long-range monsoon forecast—a new climate adaptation technology—on farmers’ behavior and well-being.

Read the research highlights here: Monsoon Forecasts – Research Highlights