India is projected to see roughly 15,800 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, compared with a normal year, largely due to the Super El Niño, according to a new report by the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute.
The report from the university’s Climate Impact Lab (CIL) warns that the resulting temperature spike, which will cause global land temperatures to be 1.2°C above normal, will expose populations to conditions resembling the higher temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver 20 years in the future and will lead to 44 per cent more extremely hot days than expected in a normal year.
Globally, the report estimates 4,51,000 excess deaths tied to the current El Niño episode since it began in June, with 2,39,000 of those occurring within the six-month window covered by the forecast (September 2026–February 2027).
Researchers compare that toll to being about 65 times larger than the number of people believed dead or missing in the recent Nepal flash flood.
El Niño refers to a weather phenomenon that causes abnormal warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, suppresses the Indian monsoon, and leads to higher temperatures.
Emily Grover-Kopec, the report’s co-author, said the mortality estimates come from CIL’s research on how temperature relates to excess deaths, built separately for 24,378 regions worldwide to account for local climate, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity.