India’s electric vehicle (EV) dreams have long symbolised its aspirations for a cleaner, more self-reliant future. But today, those dreams risk stalling at the crossroads of geopolitics and supply chain fragility. With China’s April 2025 export curbs on rare earth elements, a critical question looms: can India steer its EV revolution onto a resilient, independent path before it’s too late?

The India EV revolution, which was running in high gear until some time ago, has now been thrown into turmoil, with manufacturers slashing their EV production targets across the board. Maruti, Tata, Mahindra, the two-wheeler giants – none has been spared. For the average Indian hoping to buy an affordable EV, these disruptions could soon mean higher prices, longer wait times and dwindling options. And with this, India’s ambitious goal of 30% EV penetration by 2030 now hangs in limbo.

Importance of Rare Earth Elements

REEs are a group of 17 metallic elements, including samarium, dysprosium, and neodymium, which are critical to modern technology. They power everything from EV motors and missile systems to smartphones and wind turbines. China has achieved near-total dominance in this sector, not just by mining these elements but by mastering the far more complex process of refining them.

With an almost iron grip on global processing – controlling roughly 85% of the market – the latest curbs by the Red Dragon have restricted access to these elements, impacting not only the global defence sector but also commercial industries, such as clean energy and electric mobility.