For Delhi, extreme heat and air pollution are no longer distant climate concerns. They are realities that increasingly shape daily life, public health and economic productivity. But how large are those costs, and who bears them most?

TOI spoke to Michael Greenstone, Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago and co-director of the Climate Impact Lab, whose latest analysis projects 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India between Sept 2026 and Feb 2027 amid the current “Super” Niño.

While the figures are stark, Greenstone says the story is not simply about rising temperatures but also about vulnerability and the ability to adapt.  Research over the past two decades has established a strong link between extreme heat and mortality. “When temperatures start to get, say, above 32 degrees Celsius, mortality rates really start to increase quite dramatically,”he says.

His research estimates that around 95% of the damage from additional greenhouse-gas emissions is projected to occur outside OECD countries. India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and much of sub-Saharan Africa therefore lie, as he puts it, in the “bullseye” of climate change.