Delhi’s smog is now into its second week. The air is not getting better. The debate on the odd-even program is getting intense. The big question here is – how effective will the odd-even program be if implemented?

A part of that answer lies in with what researchers at Energy Policy Institute at University of Chicago, and Evidence for Policy Design at Harvard University found out after conducting a rigorous evaluation of the two rounds of odd-even in January and April 2016.

The analysis shows that there was a statistically significant dip in concentrations by 14-16% during the first round of the program in January 2016. The data used was from government monitoring stations in Delhi, and just outside Delhi in the NCR (Gurgaon, Rohtak, Faridabad), and a statistical technique called difference in differences was used to measure the impact of the program. The analysis also showed that most of the gain due to the program was in the morning hours between 11am-2pm, possibly due to the drop in the morning traffic….