Climate change could contribute to about 430,000 additional deaths annually by 2050 compared with historical temperature conditions, with access to electricity, particularly for cooling, likely to play a critical role in determining how many lives can be saved, according to research by the Climate Impact Lab (CIL).

“Climate change will increase the importance of energy as a tool for adaptation… How many of those lives can be saved largely depends on access to energy, particularly the electricity needed for cooling,” said the report.

It added that poorer countries are projected to see 10 times more climate-related deaths than wealthier nations by 2050, as many of the regions facing the greatest temperature increases also lack the energy infrastructure needed to adapt, the research found.

The report identifies what it calls a ‘Mortality-Cooling Trap’, where countries experiencing the largest increases in heat-related mortality are projected to see only marginal growth in electricity consumption. The report identifies 18 low-income and lower middle-income countries, including Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar, as being caught in this trap.

According to the report, more than 676 million people in these countries are projected to live in areas with significant increases in heat-related deaths but very limited growth in electricity consumption. As a result, around 377,000 people could die annually from warmer temperatures beginning in 2050.

Access the full report here.